The Arab Winter started in 2014 and happened four years after after the Arab Spring. It includes civil wars, mounting regional instability, economic and demographic decline of Arab countries, and ethno-religious wars.
By the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees. Perhaps the most significant event was the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant from 2014 to the present.
What happened?[change | change source]
- Syrian Civil War,
- the Iraqi insurgency and the following civil war, the Egyptian Crisis,
- the Libyan Crisis; Various militias and tribes have started fighting in Libya after a breakdown in negotiations.
- the Crisis in Yemen.
- the removal of Mohamed Morsi and rise of General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in an anti-Muslim Brotherhood campaign.
- return to authoritarianism and suppression of civil liberties in Egypt since July 3, 2013.
- The arenas of Lebanon and Bahrain.
- The Northern Mali conflict was often described as part of the "Islamist Winter".
- Political changes which occurred in Tunisia, involving a change in government,
- a possible ISIL insurgency.
Chinese professor Zhang Weiwei first predicted an "Arab Winter" in his June 2011 debate with Francis Fukuyama. "My understanding of the Middle East leads me to conclude that the west should not be too happy. It will bring enormous problems to American interest. It is called "Arab Spring" for now, and I guess it will soon turn to be the winter for the Middle East."
Consequences[change | change source]
According to the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, as of January 2014, the Arab Winter cost the Arab League $800 billion USD. In 2014, sixteen million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were expected to need help.
Political columnist and commentator George Will said that as of early 2017, over 30,000 died in Libya, 220,000–320,000 were killed in Syria, and 4 million refugees had fled the Syrian Civil War alone.
There is chaos and violence. So many people fled the Middle East and North Africa to Europe, it has resulted in the European migrant crisis. As a result, "boat-people", which was once commonly referred to Vietnamese boat people, became frequently used. These include refugees from Libya or Tunisia, escaping to the European Union across the Mediterranean Sea. Some European politicians fear the migrants might "flood" their shores. So many Europeans are working on laws to help manage the arrivals along their nations' borders.
Related pages[change | change source]
- Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
- International military intervention against ISIL
- List of modern conflicts in North Africa
- Spillover of the Syrian Civil War
- Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict
References[change | change source]
- Spencer, Richard (2012-12-31). "Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter". The Telegraph. Retrieved July 19, 2014.
- "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Telegraph. The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- "Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'". CBN. 2014-09-08. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- "The Arab Winter". The New Yorker. 2011-12-28. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- "Arab Spring or Arab Winter?". The New Yorker. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- Yun Ru Phua. "After Every Winter Comes Spring: Tunisia's Democratic Flowering – Berkeley Political Review". Bpr.berkeley.edu. Retrieved 2017-02-11.
- Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson. Will the Arab Winter spring again in Sudan?. Al-Jazeera. 11 June 2016.  "The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations. Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic..."
- James Y. Simms, Jr. "Arab Spring to Arab Winter: a predictable debacle in the Middle East". richmond.com. Retrieved July 7, 2017.
- Radoslaw Fiedler, Przemyslaw Osiewicz. Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011. 2015. p182.
- "From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter". The Conversation. April 17, 2014. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- Rivlin, P (Jan 2014), Iqtisadi (PDF), Dayan Research Center, archived from the original (PDF) on October 23, 2014, retrieved October 18, 2014
- Malmvig, Lassen (2013), Arab uprisings: regional implication (PDF), IEMED
- "Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa – between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring" (PDF), International Affairs, LB, August 28, 2013, archived from the original (PDF) on October 18, 2014, retrieved July 18, 2019 Cite error: Invalid
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- "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad - Middle East - Jerusalem Post".
- Karber, Phil (2012-06-18). Fear and Faith in Paradise. ISBN 978-1-4422-1479-8. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- "Arab Winter". America Staging. 2012-12-28. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". Euro news. 2013-02-08. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- "Lecture Explores Past and Future Arab Spring". The Daily Gazette. October 10, 2014. Retrieved October 19, 2014.
- "Yemen's Arab winter". Middle East Eye. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- "Egypt & Tunisia's new Arab winter", Euro news, February 8, 2013
- "The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter?". The Nation. July 5, 2013. Retrieved November 1, 2014.
- Jones, Sophia (January 21, 2014). "In Egypt, Arab Spring Gives Way To Military Winter". The World Post. The Huffington Post. Retrieved November 1, 2014.
- "In Mali AQ achieved to infiltrate and take over Tuareg insurgency. If AQ succeeds to keep the Arab Spring countries destabilized, this will lead to a viral reproduction of Azawad scenario. AQ is the "Islamic Winter"." 
- 张维为. "观天下讲坛| 张维为：话语自信——回望六年前与福山的那场辩论". www.guancha.cn (in Chinese).
- "谁的终结？——福山与张维为对话"中国模式"-张维为、弗朗西斯·福山". guancha (in Chinese). Retrieved 2 August 2018.
- "The Arab winter". The Economist. 2016-01-09. Retrieved July 7, 2017.
- “Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring”. "In the midst of ongoing uprisings, violence, and political turmoil, widespread population displacement took place as a result of the conflict in Libya, the violence in Syria and upheaval in Yemen. In each of these contexts, the new waves of displacement took place in or to areas already struggling with previous waves, leading to multi-layered and complex crises." Archived 2017-10-09 at the Wayback Machine
- Khallaf, Shaden (August 2013). "Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring" (PDF). Working Paper Series (17). Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2017-10-09. Retrieved 2019-07-18. Cite journal requires
Other websites[change | change source]
- RT – Flames, Fury & Frustration: Arab Spring spins into Arab Winter?
- RT – CrossTalk: Arab Winter?
- Arirang News – Prime Talk: Are we approaching an Arab Winter? Jang Ji-hyang, Asan Institute for Policy Studies
- VICE – Arab Winter: Syrian refugees in Lebanon Bekaa Valley
- Dimitar Mihaylov – Why the Arab Spring Turned into Arab Winter: Understanding the Middle East Crises through Culture, Religion, and Literature