Next United Kingdom general election

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Next United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 No later than 24 January 2025

All 650 seats[a] in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Conservative Boris Johnson 359
Labour Keir Starmer 199
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 45
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 13
DUP Jeffrey Donaldson 8
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 7
Plaid Cymru Adam Price 3
Alba Alex Salmond 2
Social Democratic and Labour Colum Eastwood 2
Green Carla Denyer &
Adrian Ramsay
1
Alliance Naomi Long 1
Independent n/a 7
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Boris Johnson
Conservative

The Next United Kingdom general election must be held no later than Friday 24 January 2025, after the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

Polling data[change | change source]

Pollster Client Dates

conducted

Area Sample

size

Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
Opinium The Observer 11 - 12 Feb UK 2,006 42% 37% 6% 5% 5%
5%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
UKIP on 1%
Reform UK on 0%
Other on 3%
5%
YouGov The Times 9-10 Feb GB 1,660 41% 36% 6% 5% 7%
7%
Reform UK on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies N/A 8th Feb GB 2,000 43% 38% 7% 5% 4%
3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Reform UK on 2%
Other on 1%
5%
SavantaComRes N/A 5 - 7 Feb UK TBC 41% 37% 8% 4% 4% 7% 4%
Survation N/A 5 - 6 Feb UK 1,003 39% 33% 9% 5% 7%
6%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 5%
6%
Ipsos MORI Archived 2021-02-14 at the Wayback Machine Evening Standard 29 Jan - 4 Feb GB 1,056 42% 38% 7% 5% 8%
0%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Reform UK on 0%
Other on 0%
4%
YouGov The Times 2 - 3 Feb GB 1,684 41% 37% 6% 5% 6%
6%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 2%
4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies N/A 1 Feb GB 2,000 40% 38% 8% 5% 4%
4%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 1%
2%
Number Cruncher Politics ITV 25 Jan - 1 Feb UK 2,001 43% 37% 5% 5% 5%
5%
Reform UK on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
6%
SavantaComRes N/A 29 - 31 Jan UK 2,070 41% 38% 6% 5% 3% 7% 3%
Opinium Archived 2021-02-06 at the Wayback Machine The Observer 28 - 29 Jan UK 2,002 41% 38% 7% 5% 4%
5%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
UKIP on 2%
Reform UK on 1%
Other on 1%
3%
YouGov The Times 26 - 27 Jan GB 1,721 37% 41% 6% 5% 4%
7%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 3%
4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies N/A 25 Jan GB 2,000 42% 37% 8% 5% 4%
5%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 2%
5%
Kantar Public N/A 21 - 25 Jan GB 1,100 40% 37% 10% 4% 5%
4%
Reform UK on 2%
UKIP on 1%
Other on 1%
3%
SavantaComRes N/A 22 - 24 Jan UK 2,070 40% 37% 8% 5% 3%
6%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Reform UK on 2%
Other on 4%
3%
Deltapoll N/A 21 - 23 Jan GB 1,632 41% 39% 7% 4% 3%
6%
Reform UK on 2%
UKIP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 1%
2%
YouGov The Times 21 - 22 Jan GB 1,703 39% 38% 5% 5% 6%
7%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Reform UK on 4%
Other on 2%
1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies N/A 18 Jan GB 2,000 40% 38% 8% 4% 5%
4%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Reform UK on 2%
Other on 2%
2%
SavantaComRes N/A 15 - 17 Jan UK 1,914 39% 37% 7% 5% 3%
7%
Reform UK on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 5%
2%
Opinium Archived 2021-01-22 at the Wayback Machine The Observer 14 - 15 Jan UK 2,003 37% 41% 6% 6% 4%
5%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
UKIP on 1%
Other on 3%
4%
YouGov The Times 13 - 14 Jan GB 1,702 38% 39% 5% 5% 6%
6%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 2%
1%
Survation N/A 12 - 13 Jan UK 1,033 40% 38% 7% 4% 5%
7%
Brexit Party on 1%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 6%
2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies N/A 11 Jan GB 2,000 41% 37% 8% 5% 5%
3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Reform UK on 2%
Other on 1%
4%
SavantaComRes N/A 8 - 10 Jan UK 1,550 40% 37% 8% 4% 4%
7%
Reform UK on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
3%
Opinium The Observer 6 - 7 Jan UK 2,003 39% 40% 6% 5% 4%
6%
UKIP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
1%
Jan 6 The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK[1]
YouGov The Times 4 - 5 Jan GB 1,704 39% 39% 6% 5% 6%
6%
Brexit Party on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
Tie

Most of the polling data says it will be a very narrow election. Some polls don't include Northern Ireland because their parties are different to the UK's. Current polling data from the electionpolling.co.uk website says the Conservatives will get a 2 seat majority[2]

Most polling is similar to that of this graph, showing a gradual decrease in Conservative support. It fell to it's lowest in December, and then went up slightly. The other parties have mostly stayed the same.

Notes[change | change source]

  1. Under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 the number of constituencies would have been reduced to 600 following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. The Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020 kept the number of constituencies at 650.

References[change | change source]

  1. "Party registration decisions". Electoral Commission. 2021-01-06. Retrieved 2021-01-06.
  2. "2024 General Election Polls - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 2021-02-14.