Societal collapse

Destruction, from The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole (1836)

Desolation, from The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole (1836)

Societal collapse is a complex human society falling apart or breaking down. That can happen because of natural disasters, environmental change, use of too many resources, complexity problems, loss of social unity, more inequality, or loss of creativity.

Societal longevity

The social scientist Luke Kemp studied many civilizations from 3000 BC to 600 AD. He defined a civilization as a society that has farming, several cities, a strong army in its area, and a steady government. He found that on average, civilizations last about 340 years.

Some civilizations lasted much longer:

• Kushite Kingdom in Northeastern Africa: 1,150 years.
• Aksumite Empire in East Africa: 1,100 years.
• Vedic civilization in South Asia: 1,000 years.
• Olmec civilization in Mesoamerica: 1,000 years.

Some were much shorter:

• Nanda Empire in India: only 24 years.
• Qin dynasty in China: only 14 years.

Another expert, Samuel Arbesman, studied empires by using math and complex systems. He found that collapse often happens at random times and does not depend on how old the civilization is. This idea is like the Red Queen hypothesis in biology, which says that in a tough environment, any species can go extinct at any time.

Today, people talking about collapse are looking for ways to make societies stronger by suggesting big changes to how society works, rather than just trying to fix old systems.

Causes

Many factors can make societies fall apart and often build on one another until they become too strong to fix:

• Natural disasters and climate change
  • Long droughts likely caused the collapse of the Indus Valley civilization around 1700 B.C.
  • A huge drought about 4,200 years ago dried the Green Sahara, hurting farming and ending the Akkadian Empire.
  • Volcanic eruptions can cool the climate. One in 43 B.C. may have worsened droughts and helped Roman civil wars.
  • In the 1600s, the Little Ice Age caused bad weather, failed crops, famine, wars, and revolts like the Thirty Years' War, which killed many in Germany .
  • Similar climate changes caused drought and collapses in North America, like the fall of the Mississippian culture and the Pueblo peoples.

Theories

Experts have different ideas why societies collapse:

• Cognitive decline and loss of creativity: One idea is that people lose their ability to think and create new solutions.
• Social and environmental dynamics: Another view is that society and nature interact in ways that can damage social order over time.
• Energy return on investment: Some say collapse happens when the energy we use costs too much compared to what we get from it.
• Models of societal response: People study how societies react to stress. For example, Joseph Tainter says more technology and complexity can make problems harder to solve (the “sunk-cost” effect explained these complex investments can trap societies).
• Toynbee's theory of decay: The historian Arnold Toynbee suggested civilizations rise and fall as they fail to meet challenges.
• Systems science: Other scientists use complex systems ideas to explain why societies weaken and fall when many things go wrong together.