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U.S. economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents

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Historically, the United States economy did better on average when Democrats were US President than when Republicans were US President. This was certainly true over the last several decades. The reasons for this are uncertain and debated.[1][2] Ten of the 11 US recessions between 1953 and 2020 began under Republican US Presidents.[3]

Job creation

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Job creation refers to the number of net jobs added, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on a monthly basis.[4] Journalist Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post summarized the total job creation by US President. For the 13 US Presidents starting from Harry Truman, total job creation was about 70.5 million for the 7 Democratic US Presidents and 29.1 million for the 6 Republican US Presidents. The Democratic US Presidents were in office for a total of 429 months, with 164,000 jobs per month added on average, while the Republican US Presidents were in office for 475 months, with a 61,000 jobs added per month average. This monthly average rate was 2.4 times faster under Democratic US Presidents.[5]

Former President Bill Clinton said in 2012 that since 1961, Democratic US Presidents produced 42 million jobs in 24 years while Republicans produced 24 million jobs in 28 years.[2]

Economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson said that, for the 1949-2012 time period, annual job growth was 2.6% for Democratic US Presidents and 1.2% for Republican US Presidents.[1]

Job creation by US Presidency

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Change in nonfarm employment for all US Presidents since 1939 (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)[6][7]
President Political party Length of Presidency Nonfarm employment at the start of Presidency (in thousands) Nonfarm employment at the end of Presidency (in thousands) Annual percentage change in nonfarm employment
Franklin D. Roosevelt (data available for 1939–1945 only) Democratic 1933–1945 29,923 (for January 1939) 41,446 5.35% (annual average from January 1939 to April 1945)
Harry S. Truman Democratic 1945–1953 41,446 50,144 2.49%
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1953–1961 50,144 53,683 0.86%
John F. Kennedy Democratic 1961–1963 53,683 57,255 2.30%
Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1963–1969 57,255 69,439 3.80%
Richard M. Nixon Republican 1969–1974 69,439 78,619 2.25%
Gerald R. Ford Republican 1974–1977 78,619 80,690 1.08%
Jimmy Carter Democratic 1977–1981 80,690 91,033 3.06%
Ronald W. Reagan Republican 1981–1989 91,033 107,161 2.06%
George H. W. Bush Republican 1989–1993 107,161 109,794 0.61%
Bill Clinton Democratic 1993–2001 109,794 132,698 2.40%
George W. Bush Republican 2001–2009 132,698 134,055 0.13%
Barack H. Obama Democratic 2009–2017 134,055 145,612 1.04%
Donald J. Trump Republican 2017–2021 145,612 142,669 -0.51%
Joe Biden Democratic 2021–2025 142,669 144,308 (for April 2021) 4.68% (annual average from January 2021 to April 2021)

GDP growth

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Real GDP growth (annualized %) for U.S. presidents, from Eisenhower to Obama. Blue indicates Democrat, red for Republican.[8]

GDP is a measure of both economic production and income. The Economist reported in August 2014 that real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth was about 1.8% greater under Democratic US Presidents, from Truman up to Obama's first term, which ended in January 2013.[2] Blinder and Watson calculated the average Democratic real GDP growth rate as 4.3%, vs. 2.5% for Republicans, from President Truman's elected term up to President Obama's first term, which ended January 2013.[1] CNN said in September 2020 that annual average GDP growth was 4.1% under Democratic US Presidents and 2.5% under Republican US Presidents.[3]

The New York Times said in February 2021 that since 1933, annual average GDP growth was 4.6% under Democratic US Presidents and 2.4% under Republican US Presidents.[9]

Unemployment rates

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Blinder and Watson found that the US unemployment rate fell under Democratic Presidents by an average of 0.8%, while it increased under Republican Presidents by an average of 1.1%.[1] Journalist Andrew Soergel wrote in U.S. News & World Report in October 2015 that ever since John F. Kennedy's Presidency, the unemployment rate was lower at the end of every Democrat's Presidency than at the start of it whereas this is only true for Ronald Reagan among Republican US Presidents during the same time period.[10] (Soergel's statement here is slightly wrong since the US unemployment rate was exactly the same–at 7.5%–at both the start and the end of Democrat Jimmy Carter's Presidency.)[11][7]

Historical unemployment rate statistics

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Unemployment rate change by United States President between the start of their Presidency and the end of their Presidency from 1948 (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)[11][7]
President Political party Length of Presidency Unemployment rate at start of Presidency Unemployment rate at end of Presidency Change in unemployment rate during Presidency
Harry S. Truman (data available for 1948–1953 only) Democratic 1945–1953 3.4% (for January 1948) 2.9% Positive decrease −0.5% (from January 1948 to January 1953)
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1953–1961 2.9% 6.6% Negative increase +3.7%
John F. Kennedy Democratic 1961–1963 6.6% 5.7% Positive decrease −0.9%
Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1963–1969 5.7% 3.4% Positive decrease −2.3%
Richard M. Nixon Republican 1969–1974 3.4% 5.5% Negative increase +2.1%
Gerald R. Ford Republican 1974–1977 5.5% 7.5% Negative increase +2.0%
Jimmy Carter Democratic 1977–1981 7.5% 7.5% Steady 0.0%
Ronald W. Reagan Republican 1981–1989 7.5% 5.4% Positive decrease −2.1%
George H. W. Bush Republican 1989–1993 5.4% 7.3% Negative increase +1.9%
Bill Clinton Democratic 1993–2001 7.3% 4.2% Positive decrease −3.1%
George W. Bush Republican 2001–2009 4.2% 7.8% Negative increase +3.6%
Barack H. Obama Democratic 2009–2017 7.8% 4.7% Positive decrease −3.1%
Donald J. Trump Republican 2017–2021 4.7% 6.3% Negative increase +1.6%
Joe Biden Democratic 2021–present 6.3% 6.1% (for April 2021) Positive decrease −0.2% (from January 2021 to April 2021)
Unemployment rate change for each US presidential term from 1949 (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)[11][7]
President Political party Length of presidential term Unemployment rate at start of presidential term Unemployment rate at end of presidential term Change in unemployment rate during presidential term
Harry S. Truman Democratic 1949–1953 4.3% 2.9% Positive decrease −1.4%
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1953–1957 2.9% 4.2% Negative increase +1.3%
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1957–1961 4.2% 6.6% Negative increase +2.4%
John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1961–1965 6.6% 4.9% Positive decrease −1.7%
Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic 1965–1969 4.9% 3.4% Positive decrease −1.5%
Richard M. Nixon Republican 1969–1973 3.4% 4.9% Negative increase +1.5%
Richard M. Nixon and Gerald R. Ford Republican 1973–1977 4.9% 7.5% Negative increase +2.6%
Jimmy Carter Democratic 1977–1981 7.5% 7.5% Steady 0.0%
Ronald W. Reagan Republican 1981–1985 7.5% 7.3% Positive decrease −0.2%
Ronald W. Reagan Republican 1985–1989 7.3% 5.4% Positive decrease −1.9%
George H. W. Bush Republican 1989–1993 5.4% 7.3% Negative increase +1.9%
Bill Clinton Democratic 1993–1997 7.3% 5.3% Positive decrease −2.0%
Bill Clinton Democratic 1997–2001 5.3% 4.2% Positive decrease −1.1%
George W. Bush Republican 2001–2005 4.2% 5.3% Negative increase +1.1%
George W. Bush Republican 2005–2009 5.3% 7.8% Negative increase +2.5%
Barack H. Obama Democratic 2009–2013 7.8% 8.0% Negative increase +0.2%
Barack H. Obama Democratic 2013–2017 8.0% 4.7% Positive decrease −3.3%
Donald J. Trump Republican 2017–2021 4.7% 6.3% Negative increase +1.6%
Joe Biden Democratic 2021–2025 6.3% 6.1% (for April 2021) Positive decrease −0.2% (from January 2021 to April 2021)

Budget deficit

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Blinder and Watson reported that budget deficits were smaller under Democratic US Presidents, at 2.1% potential GDP versus 2.8% potential GDP for Republican US Presidents, a difference of about 0.7%. They wrote that higher budget deficits should in theory have boosted the economy more for Republicans, and therefore cannot explain the greater GDP growth under Democrats.[1]

Stock market returns

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Stock market returns are also higher under Democratic US Presidents ever since 1945, according to both CNN and Blinder and Watson.[3][1]

Recessions

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CNN reported in October 2020 that 10 of the last 12 recessions began under Republican US Presidents, and that “Every Republican president since Benjamin Harrison, who was in office from 1889 to 1893, had a recession start in their first term in office.”[3] NBER reports the start date of recessions; the following list includes the President in office at that time and their party:[12]

  1. February 2020 (Trump / R)
  2. December 2007 (Bush 43 / R)
  3. March 2001 (Bush 43 / R)
  4. July 1990 (Bush 41 / R)
  5. July 1981 (Reagan / R)
  6. January 1980 (Carter / D)
  7. November 1973 (Nixon / R)
  8. December 1969 (Nixon / R)
  9. April 1960 (Eisenhower / R)
  10. August 1957 (Eisenhower / R)
  11. July 1953 (Eisenhower / R)
  12. November 1948 (Truman / D)

Blinder and Watson calculated that the US economy was in recession for 49 quarters from 1949-2013; 8 of these quarters were under Democratic US Presidents and 41 of these quarters were under Republican US Presidents.[1]

Commentary

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During a March 2004 interview, future Republican US President Donald Trump stated: "It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans."[13]

Journalist David Leonhardt wrote in the New York Times that economists he interviewed were unsure about the causes of the better economic performance under Democratic US Presidents.[9] However, one proposed cause was that Democratic US Presidents were, on average, more pragmatic than Republican US Presidents were.[9] Random good luck and the condition of the US economy at the start of US Presidents' terms have also been suggested as possible causes of this due to the fact that it's easier for an economy to grow rapidly and create a lot of jobs right after a recession as opposed to after a very long period of economic growth and strong job creation.[14]

Statistics

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The table below compares various economic data for Democratic and Republican US Presidents, using the Blinder & Watson data (typically Truman's elected term through Obama's first term).[1]

Variable Democrats Republicans Difference
Real GDP growth 4.33% 2.54% 1.79%
Job creation rate % 2.59% 1.17% 1.42%
Unemployment rate % 5.64% 6.01% 0.38%
Unemployment rate change -0.83% +1.09% 1.92%
Inflation rate (GDP deflator) 2.89% 3.44% 0.55%
Budget deficit % potential GDP 2.09% 2.78% 0.69%
Stock market S&P 500 annual return 8.35% 2.70% 5.65%

References

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  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Blinder, Alan S.; Watson, Mark W. (April 2016). "Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration". American Economic Review. 106 (4): 1015–1045. doi:10.1257/aer.20140913. S2CID 32188412.
  2. 1 2 3 "Timing is everything". The Economist. August 9, 2014 – via economist.com.
  3. 1 2 3 4 "Stocks perform better when a Democrat is in the White House". September 23, 2020 – via cnn.com.
  4. ↑ "Employment Situation Summary". November 6, 2020 – via bls.gov.
  5. ↑ "Biden's claim that Trump will be the first president with a negative jobs record". October 2, 2020 – via washingtonpost.com.
  6. ↑ https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?bls
  7. 1 2 3 4 https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
  8. ↑ "Guess Which Presidents Really Oversaw Economic Booms". Bloomberg. August 1, 2018 – via bloomberg.com.
  9. 1 2 3 Leonhardt, David; Serkez, Yaryna (Feb 3, 2021). "Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?". The New York Times – via nytimes.
  10. ↑ "Which Presidents Have Been Best for the Economy?". October 28, 2015 – via usnews.com.
  11. 1 2 3 "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics". www.bls.gov.
  12. ↑ "US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions". November 23, 2020 – via nber.org.
  13. ↑ "Trump Claims the Economy Does Better Under Democrats". October 25, 2016 – via youtube.com.
  14. ↑ Stanglin, Doug. "Fact check: Do Republican presidents oversee recessions and Dems oversee recoveries?". USA TODAY.
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