User:Huji/Stats/Expansion

The graph below, shows the rate of expansion of the number of articles we have had on Wikipedia. Numbers on the X axis show the month numbers: Jan (1) to Dec (12) of 2006, and then Jan (1) to Oct (10) of 2007.

Simple Wikipedia expansion graph.

Obviously, the number of articles is not increasing exponentially, but in an approximately constant speed. Using a linear regression model, the expansion of our wiki approximately follows this formula:

NumberOfArticles = 6173 + ( 646 * NumberOfMonthsAfterJan2006 )

For example, to estimate the number of articles by the end of January 2008, we will have:

N = 6173 + ( 646 * 24 ) = 21677

Also we can estimate that we will reach 25000 articles in July 2008, and we will reach 50000 articles in August 2011. Needless to say, these estimates are approximate, and should be interpreted with caution.